Bitcoin is trading bullish around $66,600 as the extended holiday weekend sidelines potential buyers and gives bears more control over price action.
With CME futures and ETF inflows halting on Good Friday, the market is heading into a liquidity gap, as its most reliable source of support is already weakening.
Bitcoin’s $65,000 support is starting to look fragile as the market’s most active buyers have become its biggest-dependents. In a recent report, CryptoQuant data showed 30-day apparent demand at around -63,000 BTC, even as ETF and corporate buying reached multi-month highs, while Singapore-based market maker Nflux told CoinDesk in a note that price levels are “partly below rate cut expectations.”
ETF purchases have surged to nearly 50,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the most since October 2025, while the strategy has accumulated nearly 44,000 BTC over the same period. Yet overall demand remained negative, with selling by other participants outweighing those flows.
The pressure is most visible among large holders, CryptoQuant wrote in a recent report. Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have turned to net distributions, their one-year balance change falling from positive 200,000 BTC at the 2024 cycle peak to negative 188,000 BTC. Mid-sized holders have also slowed bullish accumulation, while the Coinbase premium remains negative, indicating weak US spot demand.
The result is a market where increased institutional activity does not translate into strong price support. As more capital shifts toward ETF wrappers and regulated futures markets, Bitcoin’s price is moving through macro-sensitive positioning such as hedging and allocation shifts rather than broad-based spot accumulation.
That position is now being tested by inflation data, Enflux writes. The ISM price-paid index rose to 78.3 in March, the highest level since June 2022, reducing expectations for a rate cut in the near term. Nflux said revaluation flows have already begun to appear, with $296 million in net ETF outflows during the week of March 24 and lower inflows in early April.
The long weekend removes a major stabilizer. With the CME closed and ETF creation and redemptions halted, the institutional bid that bullishly controls Bitcoin’s price will be largely absent, leaving trading in spot markets where selling pressure remains the heaviest.
CryptoQuant said any relief rally would likely face resistance between around $71,500 and $81,200, which has limited prior rebounds in the current bear-market structure.
The broader test comes with US inflation data on April 9. If March core PCE exceeds February’s 3.1%, rate cut expectations could fade further, strengthening the bearish case for Bitcoin.