Veteran trader Peter Brandt estimates a peak between $300,000 and $500,000. Bernstein analysts Gautam Chugani and Mahika Sapra expect prices to reach $500,000 by 2029, citing growing demand for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
reality check
However, while four-year cycles have consistently produced new all-time highs, each successive cycle has seen notably lower multiples, narrower gains and slower overall expansion.
As Bitcoin grows, matures and becomes more valuable, it requires significantly more capital to move it up meaningfully. High Cycle’s track record proves that:
- 2013: $266
- 2017: Around ~$20,000 (75x previous high)
- 2021: ~$69,000 (3.5x from 2017)
- 2025: $126,000 (only 1.8x from 2021)
This means bull runs are plateauing, with more measured gains rather than moonshots. If this trend continues, the next peak could be well below the estimated $300,000 to $500,000 level. (A rally to $300,000 or more requires a jump of more than 2x from 2025 highs)
However, this is not necessarily bad news.
As mentioned earlier, the larger the asset becomes, the more capital is required to top it up. And with the institutionalization of the market and the growing array of advanced risk management products such as Bitcoin ETFs, futures, options, volatility products, arbitrage funds and structured products with embedded options, BTC is naturally becoming less volatile and more Wall Street-like.