Silent response is now the pattern. When Iran first closed the Strait of Hormuz in early March, Brent crude surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time in four years and later neared $120, and Bitcoin sold off rapidly on each rise.
Part of it is timing. Oil, equities and bonds are closed for the weekend, so Bitcoin is the only major market open to strike price in real time, and that’s assuming them close to a non-event.
The full cross-asset reaction, particularly in crude oil, may not be visible until Monday. About a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent had already taken on a risk premium over the weekend after tanker traffic through the Strait remained below normal.
However, the real test comes on Monday, when crude reopens with a sharp difference while Bitcoin maintains its position. A quiet oil spill would suggest that the closure of the strait is being read as a threat made by Tehran and has been walked back before.