November has a big reputation in Bitcoin lore, but the typical November is mediocre and the blockbuster is worse than the average 2013 moon.
Crypto influencer Lark Davis called November Bitcoin’s “strongest month ever”, with average gains of nearly 42%. The CoinGlass Bitcoin monthly returns heat map shows that the numbers are realistic for the mean over 2013-2025, but that’s not the whole story: November’s mean is 8.81%, and the mean is pulled up from 2013’s +449.35%.
That difference – the mean versus the mean – matters. The median describes a typical November across different cycles. The mean is sensitive to external moves, and is above the 2013 sample. Look down the November column and the spread emerges: deep losses in 2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%), 2022 (-16.23%); Solid gains in 2020 (+42.95%), 2024 (+37.29%), and quiet 2025 (+0.54%). This spread explains why “November is stronger on average” is descriptive history, not forecast.
Where do “Uptober” and “Moonvember” come from? They’re community memes that resurface each fall to label the expected October rally and November’s follow-up. The heat map shows helpful history in places – the October average is +19.92% and the average is +14.71% – but seasonality never guarantees results in any one year.
How to use it without making a fool of yourself: Add any seasonal data with both the mean and median, cite the range, and avoid solving the 42% mean back into a price target. In practice, traders look for confirmation before leaning into the calendar effect – breaking defined resistance, improving breadth, and on higher volume. If the tape does not confirm, the trade should not occur in the calendar.