Crypto traders have long called October colloquially “Uptober,” pointing to the trend of the month yielding the biggest rallies for Bitcoin. But this year’s record is becoming the worst since 2015.
Bitcoin is down 5% year to date and trading near $107,000 in late Asian hours on Sunday, Coinglass data shows. October’s historical average sits around 19.8%, next to November’s 42%, the asset’s strongest month.
Macro risks have outweighed seasonality. The US-China tariff standoff, weak liquidity, and a series of leveraged washouts have combined to backfire.
Bitcoin’s fall below $107,000 last week led to $1.2 billion in liquidations, ending long positions built up after September’s rally. Ethereum, Solana and BNB are down 4%-7% each on the week, while smaller tokens prefer And There has been a decline of more than 20%. The CoinDesk 20 Index is down 8% in October.
October’s red streak isn’t unprecedented, but it is rare. Bitcoin has closed the month lower only twice in twelve years – 2014 and 2018, with the latter ending with a 3% decline.
However, in 2020, Bitcoin surged from a decline in early October to a 27% gain by the end of the month, setting a record high the following year. Even with two weeks left, there is still room for change in the calendar.
“Uptober” may not be but it’s testing its name this year.