According to Coinbase Institutional’s Q4 2025 “Charting Crypto: Navigating Uncertainty” report, prepared in collaboration with Glassnode, crypto’s year-end setup is still positive.
The team describes its stance as cautious but more biased after the October 10 shock. Coinbase links the decline to heavy leverage fueling a low order book, then worsening when some exchanges’ auto-deleveraging limited market-maker shorts and drained liquidity. The firm says prices stabilized over the weekend, but the tapering remained temporary as macro jitters re-emerged.
Liquidity and macro are at the heart of Coinbase’s approach.
The company’s Global M2 Money Supply Index — which Coinbase says has historically tracked Bitcoin and leads about 110 days — started the quarter supportive of the currency, though the report cautioned that conditions could tighten later in the fourth quarter. Coinbase also expects two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts before the end of the year, a change it believes could pull some cash out of money-market funds and back toward risk-on.
Policy and market plumbing complete what Coinbase calls a creative setup.
The report highlights stablecoin supply and monthly volume at or near record levels – evidence, according to Coinbase, that more payments and transfers are happening on-chain. It also notes that the US spot ETF infrastructure for Bitcoin and Ether is continuing to deepen, improving access for traditional allocators and strengthening market depth. Coinbase argues that these developments are less about headlines and more about the rails that keep usage and liquidity flowing through volatility.
In terms of positioning, Coinbase has supported Bitcoin, citing its “digital gold” role amid persistent doubts about fiscal and monetary discipline. Ether also looks constructive: scaling progress has fueled more activity in the layer-2 network, while fees have declined, and sentiment has improved since the beginning of the year, the report said. An investor survey included in the report shows that a majority of institutions are bullish on BTC over the next three to six months, even as many flagged the macro backdrop as a top risk.
Coinbase dedicates space to digital-asset treasury companies (DATs), describing them as meaningful, relatively stable buyers of BTC and ETH. The firm says the group now holds a significant share of the circulating supply and remains an important source of demand. At the same time, Coinbase acknowledges open questions about its long-term business model – especially after the recent equity-market weakness at the group.
The report does not rule out near-term threats. Coinbase has flagged missing US data linked to the government shutdown, the possibility of reduced liquidity in November, and uncertainty around DAT as reasons to keep the size and time horizon disciplined.
Still, Coinbase Institutional’s bottom line is stable: liquidity conditions, policy progress and expanding on-chain usage – led by stablecoins and maturing ETF plumbing – will remain supportive into the end of the year, with Bitcoin best positioned to lead the way if support remains.