Bitcoin It fell to $67,960 by Saturday morning, down 3.4% over the past 24 hours and retreating sharply from last week’s highs. The move matches what has become a recurring script in recent months, with weekend sales pulling prices toward the lower end of the range by Saturday.
The Majors struck again. Ether fell 4.4% to $1,974, Solana fell 4% to $84.31, Dogecoin fell 2.9% to $0.09, and BNB fell 2.6% to $627. XRP fell 2.2% to $1.37.
However, the weekly picture tells a more nuanced story. Bitcoin is still up 3.6% in seven days. Ether has gained 2.6%. BNB added 2.1%. The midweek surge withstood the blow of the battle and then some, even if Friday’s comeback took the shine off.
Meanwhile, the dollar posted its sharpest weekly gain in a year, boosted by market concerns about higher energy costs, steady inflation and the Fed having little room to cut rates. This has a direct adverse effect for Bitcoin and all other assets denominated against the dollar.
“As tensions escalated in the Middle East last week, investors quickly turned to the safety of the US dollar, which strengthened as the market began pricing in higher energy prices and inflation fears resurfaced, leading to a possible delay in a Federal Reserve rate cut,” Aurelian CEO Bjorn Schmidtke said in an email to CoinDesk.
On-chain data paints a delicate picture beneath the surface. Glassnode data shows that 43% of the total market supply of Bitcoin is now in loss. This is an important change.
As Bitcoin recovers, those underwater holders have an incentive to sell in any rally to break-even, creating continued resistance along the way. This is one reason why the push to $74,000 could not be sustained on Thursday. Every bounce toward higher prices impacts supply from people who have been waiting for months to get out.
One bright spot came from stablecoin flows. Messari recorded a 415% increase in net stablecoin inflows during the week, to $1.7 billion, with daily transfers up nearly 10%. This is potentially dry powder waiting to be deployed, and suggests that retail sales are not entirely absent despite the fear-heavy sentiment. The question is whether that capital will convert to Bitcoin or wait for lower prices.
The battle continues to set the pace. There were no signs of resolution of the US-Iran conflict this week. Oil remains high. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. And the macro backdrop of a strong dollar, sticky inflation and delayed rate cuts is the worst combination for risk assets.
Bitcoin’s week looked impressive in the headlines, hitting $74,000 mid-week, but the round trip from $68,000 to $74,000 and back to $68,000 is just another stop in this range.