Good morning, Asia. Know here what news is being made in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top stories and an overview of market action and analysis during US time. For a detailed overview of US markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
As Hong Kong began its trading day, Bitcoin is trading around $109K as traders continue to digest Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that another rate cut is not a sure thing, reducing demand for BTC ETFs and other risk assets.
Polymarket traders now give the Fed a 71% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at its December meeting, down from about 90% before Powell’s comments. The probability of no change increased to 26%, which shows how quickly traders readjusted their expectations after the press conference.
According to CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report, US investor demand for crypto has dropped sharply. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded seven-day average outflows of 281 BTC, one of the weakest readings since April, while Ether inflows have almost halted. Coinbase premiums for both coins have approached zero, and the CME futures basis has fallen to multi-year lows, indicating that institutional and retail traders alike are taking profits rather than adding exposure.
Glassnode’s on-chain analysis paints a similar picture of declining trust. Bitcoin continues to struggle below its cost basis of around $113,000 for short-term holders, with long-term holders delivering around 104,000 BTC per month. The volume of transfers from these wallets to exchanges has increased to $293 million per day, suggesting that experienced investors are pulling out money due to weak demand.
The broader crypto market reflected that fatigue. As CoinDesk previously reported, Solana fell 8% to $186 on Thursday despite the launch of the first US spot Solana ETF.
Bitwise’s BSOL pulled in $116 million in two days, and Grayscale’s GSOL attracted $1.4 million, yet the token’s decline wiped out its year-to-date gains. Sentiment was further worsened by a large on-chain transfer from Jump Crypto to Galaxy Digital, leading to speculation about portfolio rebalancing.
With low volatility metrics and a balanced stance, traders are now keeping an eye on the Fed’s next move. Right now, Polymarket traders are giving a 55% chance of no changes, which has increased marginally since Powell’s recent comments.
When the US government officially reopens, and data is released that paint a worse picture of the economy than is currently known, Powell’s stance may change. And crypto traders will keep watching.
market movements
BTC: Bitcoin fell nearly 5% over the past 24 hours to around $109,800, giving back its previous weekly gains as traders reacted to Powell’s dovish comments and a drop in US ETF inflows.
ETH: Ether slipped 1.8% to around $3,850, extending its month-long decline as US spot ETF inflows dropped to near zero and futures demand weakened.
Sleep: Gold fell $16.50 to $3,984.70 and silver slipped to $47.89 as Powell’s dovish comments after the Fed’s rate cut dashed hopes of more easing and Treasury yields rose.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific shares rose on Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbing more than 1% to a new record after Trump and Xi agreed to ease trade tensions with South Korea.
Elsewhere in crypto:
- Drake, Adin Ross sued over ‘seriously fraudulent’ promotion of crypto casino stake (Decrypt)
- UFC-backed Fight Token Sale Raises $183M, Exceeds $1.5M Target (CoinDesk)
- Western Union files trademark for ‘WUUSD’ a day after USDPT stablecoin disclosure (decrypted)