The Bitcoin (BTC) stock-to-flow (S2F) model, one of the most widely cited BTC valuation frameworks, projects a maximum price of $222,000 during this market cycle, but investors should exercise caution when using the model, according to Andre Dragosh, head of European research at investment firm Bitwise.
The stock-to-flow model does not take into account demand-side factors, Dragosh said, and instead, focuses its price modeling on the Bitcoin halving, which halves the amount of newly issued BTC every four years. he adds:
“Today, institutional demand through Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) and Treasury holdings exceeds the annual supply shortfall from the latest halving by more than seven times.”
Exchange-traded funds, ETPs and other Bitcoin investment vehicles have created a price level for BTC, supporting prices above the $100,000 level.
Crypto investors and analysts continue to debate the price of Bitcoin during the current market cycle and whether BTC has peaked, or still has room to run, as the market structure matures due to the presence of institutional investors.
Connected: Worst uptuber ever? Bitcoin price at risk for ‘red’ October for first time in years
Analysts debate how high BTC could go in this market cycle
According to Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at pro-crypto bank Standard Chartered, Bitcoin could still reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
The sudden decline in October dropped BTC below $104,000, which could provide a buying opportunity for investors, which could drive BTC to new highs.
Other analysts estimate that the price of BTC could reach $500,000 in 2026, driven by the explosion of M2 money supply, a metric tracking the total amount of US dollars present globally.
Higher M2 is seen as a bullish catalyst for BTC, as increased money supply causes liquidity to flow into the asset, pushing prices higher.
However, crypto industry executives like Tom Lee, CEO of investment research firm Fundstrat, and Mike Novogratz, CEO of crypto investment company Galaxy Digital, disagree.
Novogratz said $250,000 is unlikely to materialize by the end of 2025 unless something “crazy” happens, while Tom Lee warned that a 50% BTC decline could still happen despite institutional adoption.
magazine: Bitcoin to see ‘another big shock’ to $150K, pressure on ETH increases: Trade Secrets