MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin And long seen as a leveraged bet on crypto, waning enthusiasm and a decline in its net asset value (MNAV) premium have seen it lose about $18 billion in market value in recent months.
According to a recent report from 10x Research’s Marcus Thielen, who was bearish on the first name, the stock may be poised for a rebound as a series of key catalysts could reverse the bearish trend as soon as this week.
“At today’s price, with the NAV premium largely gone, volatility running high, and strong Q3 earnings and renewed S&P 500 inclusion as a potential catalyst for speculation, we find the strategy attractive at current levels,” Thielen wrote, noting that the stock here may offer better value than Bitcoin.
The stock’s decline below $280 (down 1.8% on Wednesday) has left the market cap barely above the value of Bitcoin on the company’s balance sheet. This marks a sharp reversal from late 2024, Thielen said, when speculative premiums pushed the stock well above its fundamentals.
Thielen said while sentiment has been “spoiled” by a 40% decline since July and retail interest has waned, the company’s Thursday earnings report could mark a turning point.
He expects the company to book a profit of about $3.6 billion from mark-to-market gains on its BTC holdings. The gain could reset speculation for a possible S&P 500 index inclusion decision in December – a move that Thielen now gives a 60-70% probability of.
The stock’s inclusion in one of the world’s most important equity indices could increase passive and active fund flows by as much as $28 billion, setting up MSTR for a similar rally seen in Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) after joining the S&P 500.
Thielen said, “Dedication always feels like the end – until it quietly marks the beginning.”
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