Coinbase (COIN) is set to report third-quarter earnings on Thursday after market close, and Wall Street is largely expecting a decline in revenue.
According to FactSet, analysts expect the crypto exchange to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14 – quadrupling the $0.28 from last year’s third quarter – and revenue of $1.8 billion, up from $1.2 billion in the same period in 2024.
But optimism is far from uniform. Analysts at JPMorgan, Barclays and Compass Point agree on the strength in blockchain rewards, USDC yields and trading activity, but differ on what this means for profitability and how much value Coinbase can unlock in the future from its layer-2 blockchain, Base.
JPMorgan’s Kenneth Worthington is the most bullish of the group, upgrading Coinbase to “overweight” and setting a price target of $404 for December 2026. His thesis relies heavily on Coinbase’s discovery of the BASE token. If launched, Worthington believes the token could command a market cap of $12 billion to $34 billion, with Coinbase retaining up to 40%, potentially adding $14 to $42 per share in equity value.
He also sees benefits from Coinbase’s efforts to segment USDC customers through its subscription product, Coinbase One. By limiting stablecoin yield rewards to paying members, Worthington estimates Coinbase could add $1 per share to annual earnings based on customer behavior.
Barclays’ Benjamin Budish, who has an Equal Weight rating on the company, shares a positive revenue outlook but takes a more restrained view. They believe adjusted EBITDA will remain 6% above consensus, driven by retail trading and stronger-than-expected USDC-related interest income.
They estimate total Q3 transaction revenue at $1.05 billion, which is above Street forecasts, and subscription and services revenue at $771 million, which is above management guidance. However, he lowered his price target to $361 from $365, citing widespread multiple compression in the market.
Compass Point’s Ed Engel is more skeptical. Although he acknowledges that third-quarter results are likely to come in slightly above expectations, he maintains a “sell” rating. Their concerns center on Coinbase’s shift toward lower-margin subscription revenues. Engel argues that USDC and staking payments to users impact profitability, and investors may be underestimating the impact. He also warned of slowing retail activity in the last part of the quarter and believes the acquisition of derivatives platform Deribit – although strategically interesting – is facing increasing competition from regulated US venues such as CBOE.
Notably, Engel is silent on the base token potential that JPMorgan has publicized, suggesting little confidence or visibility in that long-term play.
One area of agreement: USDC is becoming an increasingly important profit center. All three companies highlight how Coinbase benefits from its partnership with Circle (CRCL) and exposure to its growing stablecoin balance. But again, analysts disagree over how much of that revenue Coinbase can keep as it changes reward structures and tries to funnel users into payment tiers.
As Coinbase moves further into subscription services, on-chain infrastructure and derivatives, Thursday’s earnings report will serve as a test, not only for its recent performance, but which view of the company’s future proves to be more accurate.