By Francisco Rodriguez (All times are ET unless otherwise indicated)
Bitcoin It is hovering around $113,000 after falling 1.4% in 24 hours, while the broader crypto market as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index fell 2%.
The decline comes amid changes in stablecoins ahead of today’s policy decision from the Federal Reserve. A 25 basis point cut in interest rates is almost certain. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.9% chance of that happening, while PolyMarkets traders pegged it at a 98.1% chance.
Traders are also looking for signs that the Fed is ready to slow its balance sheet drain, which would further ease financial conditions and be a potential boon for risk assets.
Trading activity has reduced. According to Foresight Ventures, liquidity on centralized exchanges has declined sharply, with order book depth at only 40% of pre-liquidation levels, as traders rotate into stablecoins.
“Traders are moving into USD stablecoins and concentrating liquidity in deep order books,” Gracie Lin, CEO of OKEx Singapore, told CoinDesk. According to Wintermute, stablecoin supply is increasing again for the first time since September, indicating that “macro tailwinds are beginning to translate into fresh inflows.”
Similarly, perpetual futures funding rates for most major tokens are now positive again, while open interest for BTC and ETH is “rebuilding at a measured pace.”
“While the uptuber got off to a somewhat rocky start, macro tailwinds, softening inflation, ‘stabilizing’ geopolitical tensions and a dovish Fed are setting the stage for a supportive remainder of the year, which has historically been (Q4) the strongest for Bitcoin,” wrote Jasper De Maire, strategist at Wintermute OTC Desk.
Positioning and macro tailwinds make it appear that a breakout is imminent, a stance being taken by various analysts. Still, President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping this weekend could add to the uncertainty. Be alert!
what to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- crypto
- October 29: Grayscale’s Solana Trust converts to a spot ETF listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker GSOL.
- macro
- October 29, 9:45 am: Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Policy interest rate (previous 2.5%). Press conference starts after 45 minutes; Watch live.
- October 29, 2 pm: Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Fed funds rate target range estimate. 3.75%-4%. Press conference begins after 30 minutes; Watch live.
- Income (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- governance vote and call
- Lisk DAO is voting on a 4M LSK proposal to launch the Lisk DAO Fund, which will replace grants with investments in top Lisk startups. Voting will end on October 29.
- The ZKsync DAO is voting on allocating 33M ZK (~$1.65M) to the ZKsync Association to maintain and enhance the governance infrastructure until 2026. Voting will end on October 29.
- The ENS DAO is voting to fund the ENS Contract Naming Season, a six-month program led by Enscribe with 75K USDC and 10K ENS to promote smart contract naming, boost ENS adoption, and improve Ethereum UX. Voting will end on October 29.
- unlock
- token launch
conference
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
token talk
by oliver knight
- The altcoin market began to show signs of strength on Wednesday, with traders turning to high-beta tokens ahead of potential policy headlines.
- The Trump token, promoted by President Donald Trump in January, led the move, rallying as optimism grew that the US and China were reaching a trade deal.
- Base-based DeFi protocols also surged, boosted by steady activity. The token surged by 7.2% as it reached its highest level since the beginning of the month.
- The market still prefers Bitcoin, with CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator remaining at 26/100.
- Altcoin gains were limited to memecoins and DeFi tokens, while larger tokens traded in limited ranges.
- and Hedera (HBAR) both gave back most of their gains on Wednesday, with Hedera down 6.9% in 24 hours, while Hedera declined 4.5% despite the spot HBAR ETF going live on the NYSE on Tuesday.
derivatives positioning
- The BTC futures market remains stable with open interest (OI) of $26.8 billion.
- However, funding rates differ drastically: Deribit shows aggressive growth of 24.64% year-to-date, indicating strong demand for long positions, while OKEx has fallen to -3%, where shorts are being paid.
- This mix of sustained high OI and polarized funding rates reflects near-term market volatility and uncertainty, disrupting the previously uniform bullish sentiment.
- In the options market, Bitcoin is showing a strong surge in bullish confidence. The implied volatility (IV) term structure is exhibiting a slight near-term backwardation (downward slope) before normalizing into long-term contango (upward slope).
- With a 250-delta skew at 10% for one-week expiration, short-term bullish sentiment has increased significantly, meaning traders are paying a substantial premium for call options. This is further verified by the 24-hour put-call volume, which is strongly in favor of calls (60%).
- CoinGlass data shows $514 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 69-31 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($155 million), BTC ($114 million) and SOL ($57 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
- In case of price upside, the Binance liquidation heatmap points to $114,350 as the main liquidation level to monitor.
market movements
- BTC is up 0.23% at $113,094.99 (24h: -1.34%) as of 4pm ET Tuesday.
- ETH is up 0.53% at $4,003 (24 hours: -2.87%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.72% at 3,755.92 (24 hours: -2.03%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Drops 4bps to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate on Binance is 0.0036% (3.9431% annualized)
- DXY is up 0.21% at 98.88
- Gold futures are up 1.35% at $4,036.70
- Silver futures are up 2.21% at $48.37
- Nikkei 225 closed 2.17% higher at 51,307.65
- Hang Seng fell 0.33% to 26,346.14
- The FTSE is up 0.47% at 9,742.64
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.27% at 5,719.98
- The DJIA closed 0.34% higher at 47,706.37 on Tuesday.
- The S&P 500 rose 0.23% to 6,890.89
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.80% at 23,827.49.
- The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.48% to 30,419.68.
- The S&P 40 Latin America rose 0.86% to 2,979.82.
- US 10-year Treasury rates rose 0.8 bps to 3.991%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at 6,934.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.26% at 26,232.75
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell 0.27% to 47,768.00
bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.84% (-0.24%)
- Ether-Bitcoin ratio: 0.03537 (0.31%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,137 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $48.69
- Total Fees: 2.94 BTC / $335,834
- CME Futures Open Interest: 143,590 BTC
- BTC price in gold: 26.9 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Capitalization: 7.58%
technical analysis
- The ratio of total altcoin market cap (except the top 10 cryptocurrencies) to Bitcoin is resting on important, long-term weekly support.
- The lack of a clear revival signal makes this a highly uncertain situation as a break below this level would result in significant downside and market pain for the broader altcoin sector.
- With the next resistance 36% away and the next support -27% below, the current risk/reward is unfavorable for broader altcoin risk compared to Bitcoin.
crypto equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $355.22 (-1.72%) in pre-market Tuesday, +0.28% at $356.20
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed unchanged at $136.11 (-5.01%) in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.29 (-8.04%), +0.4% at $37.44
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $54.01 (-4.08%), +0.54% at $54.30
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.88 (-3.48%), +0.58% at $18.99
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $21.56 (-6.28%), +1.37% at $21.85
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $20.09 (+1.11%), +1.54% at $20.40
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $19.15 (-5.2%), +1.51% at $19.44
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $59.48 (-2.24%), +0.79% at $59.95
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $25.01 (-3.88%)
crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $284.64 (-3.72%), +0.31% at $285.51
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $27.22 (-13.42%), +2.87% at $28
- Sharplink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.74 (-3.98%), -1.38% at $13.55
- Upxi (UPXI): closed at $4.63 (-6.28%), +1.73% at $4.71
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.93 (-7.66%), +1.04% at $1.95
etf flows
spot btc etf
- Daily net inflow: $202.4 million
- Cumulative net inflow: $62.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.36 million
spot eth etf
- Daily net inflow: $246 million
- Cumulative net inflow: $14.75 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.75 million
Source: Farside Investors