Major cryptocurrencies are trading higher with key events including rate decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) and earnings reports from influential Mag 7 stocks for the coming week.
Fed likely to cut rates
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4% on Wednesday, bringing the total rate cut by 150 basis points since September last year.
CME Fed funds futures are pricing in near certainty that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on Wednesday and in December.
The consensus expects further rate cuts next year, supporting a continued bullish trend for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Bitcoin is already showing strength, rising 1.7% to $113,600 in the last 24 hours, extending its three-day winning streak. The surge comes after signs of seller exhaustion near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which currently stands at $108,800.
However, prices have still not overcome the 50-day SMA at $114,250, a widely recognized hurdle that must be overcome to restore bullish momentum in the near-term.
Other major tokens, such as ether and solana There has been an increase of 3% in the last 24 hours. Payments-focused XRP has risen above its 200-day SMA at $2.60, indicating a renewed uptick in momentum.
Powell will have to maintain focus on jobs
The upcoming Fed rate decision will be released without economic forecasts or interest rate projections, making Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference a key event to watch.
Powell is likely to reiterate his September message that the risk of a job market downturn has become more worrisome, while tariff-induced inflation is expected to be fleeting and short-lived.
The dovish talk will boost expectations of additional easing in the coming months, potentially accelerating increases in risk assets.
Powell will likely be questioned about the impact of the ongoing US government shutdown on economic and interest rate projections.
However, the premier is likely to play down the shutdown by sticking to its September economic forecasts, which showed prices rising at a 3% annual rate in 2025 and then falling by 2.6% in 2026. September forecasts also showed that the unemployment rate was to average 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and eventually fall to 4.3% by 2027.
Note that the weakness in the labor market began before the current government shutdown, so the absence of fresh jobs data due to the shutdown is unlikely to prompt Powell to reverse September guidance that prioritized labor concerns over inflation.
cutie talk
According to Scotiabank, more meaningful developments could come from the Fed’s balance sheet following Powell’s recent speech in which he indicated that conditions are close to the point where the quantitative tightening (QT) or balance sheet runoff program that began in 2022 could be ended.
“Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are slightly above the level we set consistent with adequate reserve conditions. We may reach that point in the coming months,” Powell said.
The banking system’s reserves recently fell below $3 trillion, exceeding the level widely considered adequate and indicating tight liquidity conditions.
Although the potential end of quantitative tightening (QT) does not guarantee an immediate resumption of balance sheet expansion or quantitative easing (QE), it could still boost optimism in crypto social media.
boj rate decision
On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will issue a policy statement with Governor Ueda following the rate decision.
It is expected that the central bank will keep the rates stable. However, fresh economic and interest rate forecasts can create volatility in the market. “The market anticipates no change in rates at this meeting, but about half a quarter cut in December and a full rate cut in early 2026 at the January or March meetings,” Scotiabank said in a market note.
mag 7 earnings
Apple, Meta Platform, Alphabet and Microsoft – members of the famous Mag7 group – are among the major tech names announcing their earnings this week.
Traders will be closely examining these reports for information on AI-related tech spending, which has been a key driver behind the growth in risk assets from 2023 onwards. Any sign of a slowdown in this spending could increase risk aversion in the market.
Trump-Xi meeting
US-China trade tensions eased on Sunday when both sides announced that a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies is on the way.
The comments come days after the White House confirmed that President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in person in South Korea on Thursday. This much-awaited meeting will take place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
Positive signals ahead of the meeting have raised expectations of a potential trade deal, meaning any disappointment could trigger a risk-off reaction among investors.