Good morning, Asia. Know here what news is being made in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top stories and an overview of market action and analysis during US time. For a detailed overview of US markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Will former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried be pardoned?
Speculators on Polymarket say it’s a long shot, but the odds have increased by 5 percentage points to 12% after Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao on Thursday, US time. On Kalshi, there was a big jump, where the contract asking about SBF forgiveness increased by 9 percentage points to 16%.
Earlier this year SBF mounted a media attention offensive with an appearance on Tucker Carlson’s podcast as part of a broader effort to reshape its public image and lay the groundwork for a possible presidential run.
The former FTX CEO has leaned on the conservative media and claims he was punished for supporting Republicans, while his parents were quietly introducing associates to President Donald Trump’s circle in hopes of winning clemency for their son’s 25-year prison sentence.
Even though the chances of SBF getting amnesty are slim at the moment, Polymarket traders were surprised by Trump’s decision to pardon CZ.
For most of the life of the contract, the probability of forgiveness remained between 20% and 40%, indicating widespread skepticism that any leniency was coming.
As accurate as research shows market predictions are, sometimes they miss things by underestimating the probability of outcomes. Maybe they’re doing the same with SBF, because a surprise pardon would be a final twist of sorts. philanthropist – Upcoming Netflix series about the collapse of FTX – the writers will cut down for being too far-fetched, until it happens.
Market Movement:
BTC: Bitcoin rose 2.7% to about $110,700 on Thursday, reversing Wednesday’s decline as the market gained momentum ahead of Friday’s September inflation report.
ETH: Ether is trading near $3,850 as analysts point to a potential Wyckoff re-accumulation phase, with increasing institutional demand leading to speculation of a breakout of $8,000-$10,000 at the end of this cycle.
Sleep: Gold is trading around $4,126, up nearly 50% after hitting a record high above $4,000 this year as geopolitical tensions, Fed policy uncertainty and strong central bank buying boosted demand, even as it raised its forecast for 2026 to $4,400 as Morgan Stanley warned that higher prices could slow jewelery and reserve buying.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose on Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising 0.78% after the White House confirmed Trump-Xi talks next week.
Elsewhere in crypto:
- Fireblocks buys crypto authentication startup Dynamic, completes its offering from ‘custody to consumer’ (The Block)
- Alt5 Sigma suspends CEO Peter Tassiopoulos, appoints Jonathan Hough as interim leader (CoinDesk)
- Trezor Unveils ‘Quantum-Ready’ Secure 7 Hardware Wallet (Decrypt)