By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise indicated)
Crypto market is on the rise again with Bitcoin Attempt to reach above $110,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index is up more than 1% in the last 24 hours with double-digit gains in some select tokens like HYPE, KHYPE and XMR.
Sentiment on social media remains bullish on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 bps next week, continuing the so-called liquidity easing cycle. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the dollar index continues its bullish price performance. The strengthening of the dollar may limit the upside in BTC.
Risk proxies like the iShares iBoxx$ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) are also not helpful. Both have recently entered key support levels. (Check TA section). Meanwhile, key volume studies point to underlying weakness in the Bitcoin market.
Overall, these factors validate the persistent put bias in listed BTC options on Deribit and Standard Chartered’s short-term bearish outlook.
The founders of newsletter service London CryptoClub said recent banking funding tensions and liquidity tightening “are keeping BTC stagnant and negatively impacting the underlying risk dynamics.” Still, he said the bullish phase is far from over, pointing to low bond yields and the risks of an economic slowdown that could lead to a “melt” as catalysts for aggressive Fed easing.
In traditional markets, oil rose 4% on both sides of the Atlantic after the US imposed sanctions on key Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war. Increasing volatility in the oil market may cause risk aversion. Be alert!
what to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- crypto
- October 23, 9am: Binance Square is hosting an AMA about “how early-stage projects grow, build communities, and advance their alpha journey.”
- macro
- Oct. 23, 8:30 a.m.: Due to the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Department of Labor is not releasing its usual weekly initial and continuing unemployment claims reports.
- Oct. 23, 10 a.m.: US September existing home sales estimates. 4.1M.
- Income (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- governance vote and call
- The SSV DAO is voting to amend DIP-31 to refocus SSV 2.0 on Compose, a protocol that enables atomic cross-rollup transactions to reduce L2 fragmentation and advance SSV with distributed validator technology. Voting will end on October 23.
- unlock
- October 23: Soon (SOON) will unlock 4.52% of its circulating supply worth $12.4 million.
- token launch
- October 23: Holders of DFDV common stock will receive warrant dividends.
- October 23: Venice (VVV) will reduce its token supply inflation from 10 million/year to 8 million/year.
conference
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
token talk
by Francisco Rodriguez
- Jupiter’s native token, JUP, rose more than 3% in the past 24 hours after the decentralized exchange reported strong growth in key business metrics in the third quarter.
- The Solana-based project is also pushing to launch its own stablecoin and prediction market.
- Quarterly revenue rose 19.2% to $45.8 million, while trading volume surged 71% to $242.8 billion, driven by both spot and perpetual products.
- Fees generated reached $121.5 million, up nearly 48% from the second quarter. Despite the rise, JUP’s market capitalization declined 1.5% to $1.35 billion.
- Jupiter attributes this growth to new product rollouts including its Ultra v3 trading engine and a lending protocol, which the team says is one of the fastest-growing protocols on Solana. Active wallets increased 5% to 8.4 million, and total value locked (TVL) increased 41.7% to $3.4 billion.
- JUP outperformed the broader crypto market, rising 1.6% based on the performance of the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index.
derivatives positioning
- Open interest (OI) in HYPE futures increased by 17% in 24 hours, reaching a two-week high of 40.24 million HYPE. The increase in price and accompanying positive funding rates indicates growing demand for leveraged bullish exposures.
- The OI in BTC and ETH was barely changed, a sign that traders are reluctant to place bets ahead of Friday’s US CPI release.
- Volmex’s BVIV, which measures annualized 30-day implied volatility in BTC, has retreated slightly to 50%, but remains well above September’s low of 35%. The elevated levels reflect persistent concerns arising from new risks such as auto-deleveraging and liquidity issues.
- Funding rates for major cryptocurrencies remain near zero in a sign of balanced market conditions. XMR and BNB rates are slightly negative, indicating a bearish short bias.
- On Deribit, flows included BTC put spreads. Overall, puts continue to trade at a premium to calls.
market movements
- BTC is up 1.63% at $109,459.82 (24 hours: +1.74%) as of 4pm ET on Wednesday.
- ETH is up 2.92% at $3,892.29 (24 hours: +2.05%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 2.57% at 3,602.20 (24 hours: +1.59%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate increases by 3 bps to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate on Binance is 0.0038% (4.1303% annualized)
- DXY is up 0.15% at 99.04
- Gold futures are up 1.73% at $4,135.80
- Silver futures are up 2.22% at $48.74
- Nikkei 225 fell 1.35% to 48,641.61
- Hang Seng closed 0.72% higher at 25,967.98
- FTSE is up 0.43% at 9,555.49
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.21% at 5,650.92
- The DJIA closed 0.71% lower at 46,590.41 on Wednesday.
- The S&P 500 fell 0.53% to 6,699.40
- The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.93% to 22,740.40.
- The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.32% to 29,982.98.
- The S&P 40 Latin America rose 0.49% to 2,894.55.
- US 10-year Treasury rate rises 4 bps to 3.993%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures were little changed at 6,738.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures were little changed at 25,057.25.
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell 0.24% to 46,672.00
bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.79% (-0.12%)
- Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03557 (0.57%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,116 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $47.17
- Total Fee: 2.89 BTC / $312,945
- CME Futures Open Interest: 142,385 BTC
- BTC price in gold: 26 ounces
- BTC vs Gold Market Capitalization: 7.34%
technical analysis
- The iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) recently broke out of a bullish trend line, indicating renewed seller dominance.
- The long-term game of the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) has become bearish.
- These breakdowns suggest the possibility of further broad-based risk aversion.
crypto equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $320.33 (-5.4%) on Wednesday, +0.94% at $323.33 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $124.79 (-3.9%), +1.69% at $126.90
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $37.34 (-12.88%), +1.23% at $37.80
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $52.63 (-8.1%), +1.48% at $53.41
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.15 (-4.58%), +1.36% at $19.41
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $18.99 (-8.13%), +1.21% at $19.22
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.8 (-7.44%), +2.36% at $18.22
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.86 (-10.18%), +2.43% at $17.27
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $51.32 (-8.37%), +2.81% at $52.76
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.28 (-5.67%)
crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $280.81 (-6.99%), +2.3% at $287.28
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $22.53 (-4.17%)
- Sharplink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.44 (-6.28%), +2.16% at $13.73
- Upxi (UPXI): closed at $4.75 (-6.68%), +3.79% at $4.93
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.86 (-4.62%), +6.99% at $1.99
etf flows
Spot BTC ETF:
- Daily net flow: -$101.4 million
- Cumulative net inflow: $61.84 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million
Spot ETH ETF:
- Daily net flow: -$18.9 million
- Cumulative net inflow: $14.59 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.78 million
Source: Farside Investors