Good morning, Asia. Know here what news is being made in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top stories and an overview of market action and analysis during US time. For a detailed overview of US markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
The crypto market has entered a holding pattern mid-week.
Bitcoin is trading around $108,164, up slightly from Monday but still down 2% on the week, while Ether is trading near $3,815.
The rebound reflects what QCP Capital called a “narrow-range balance” as traders await Friday’s CPI report, the only major US economic data release that has not been delayed by the shutdown.
In its note, QCP said CPI is the “sole anchor” for policy expectations and risk sentiment, noting that a soft 0.2% print could “re-anchor the soft-landing trade” and support Bitcoin’s upside skew as liquidity expectations improve. Until then, volatility is likely to remain high, supporting downside if the dollar and real yields decline further.
Polymarket traders are now reporting a 77% chance that Washington and Beijing will reach a tariff deal by Nov. 10, while the chance that Trump’s 100% tariffs on China will take effect has dropped to 16%.
In its note, the QCP argues that Trump will once again opt for a symbolic agreement rather than confrontation, making the upcoming meeting with Xi “pragmatic,” a view bolstered by his mild weekend comments that “the United States wants to help China, not hurt it.”
The relative calm in both crypto and equities reflects this détente narrative.
Last week’s $20 billion liquidation and collateral mispricing of Binance has largely done its job, leaving a clean slate for macro traders heading into the CPI event. Whether this calm will last will depend on whether Friday’s inflation print keeps the “soft landing” narrative alive, or revives the volatility that markets have just begun to shake off.
market movements
BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $108K, consolidating after a recent rally, with sellers limiting immediate breakout potential, while analysts at Standard Chartered say a drop below $100,000 could be the “last chance to buy” before the next leg of the surge.
ETH: Ethereum is up 33% to trade near $3,800 as traders pile in ahead of US inflation data, although a $650 million transfer by the Ethereum Foundation led to $700 million of profits and long liquidations, leaving analysts split between a potential breakout to $5,000 or a drop to $2,850 if $3,470 support fails. Gone.
Sleep: Gold futures are experiencing a record-setting selloff, falling 0.3% to $4,097.80 an ounce after falling 5.7% on Tuesday, as investors took profits from its record run, although analysts said strong central bank buying and expectations of rate cuts should support the bullion.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell on Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.5%, after reports that the Trump administration could restrict exports to China rekindled US-China trade tensions.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Crypto is finally on the rise, says VC giant Andreessen Horowitz (Decrypt)
- According to a16z report (Fortune), crypto lost 1,000 jobs to AI since ChatGPT launched – but gained them back from other sectors.
- Tensions rise as Senate Democrats, crypto officials meet on sweeping digital assets bill (Block)