Bitcoin Investors, now is the time to buckle up.
John Glover, Elliott Wave analyst and Chief Investment Officer at Leyden, known for his accurate market forecasts, is going against the bullish consensus with a stark warning: The Bitcoin bull market that started in early 2023 looks to be over after the recent decline from $126,000 to $104,000.
Glover now expects a sustained bearish market that could push prices down to $70,000 or lower, a potential decline of more than 35% from the current market rate of around $108,000.
“I strongly believe that we have completed the five-wave move to the upside and are now entering a bear market that could last until at least the end of 2026,” Glover said. “I expect Bitcoin to trade between $70K and $80K, and possibly even lower.”
Glover noted that while the possibility of Bitcoin retesting its all-time high around $124,000 or climbing slightly higher cannot be ruled out, the broader trend has now turned bearish, meaning prices are likely to move lower a few months from now.
elliott wave theory
Introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, Elliott Wave Theory is based on the idea that collective investor psychology moves in predictable cycles. These cycles form a five-wave structure in the direction of the main trend, consisting of three impulse waves and two corrective waves.
Bitcoin’s bullish five-wave pattern began in late 2022, when prices were below $20,000, with the fifth wave reaching a record above $126,000 earlier this month.
Initially, Wave 5 was predicted to bring prices between $140,000 and $150,000 by the end of the year. Glover made the call in early August against the backdrop of growing recession concerns after a sharp decline from $120,000 to $112,000.
While prices rose as forecast, momentum stalled above $125,000 this month, leading Glover to warn that repeated failure to hold above that level would weaken the bullish case. Subsequently, Bitcoin fell to $105,000 last week, confirming the early end of the bullish trend.
“Now that we have broken below $108k, I am ready to decide whether we are on the orange path in the chart below and therefore looking to rise to $145k, or on the yellow path, which would mean we have seen the highs in this market,” Glover said. “This is my call: the Bitcoin bullish trend is over!”
The bearish outlook is in line with Bitcoin’s historical trend of peaking and then entering a bear market approximately 18 months after each halving event. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024.
Supporting Glover’s bearish sentiment, data from AmberData shows that Deribit-listed put options on BTC, providing downside protection, are trading at a premium to calls through September 2026 expiration. This suggests that some traders are preparing for increased downside risks heading into next year.