Bitcoin It has so far surged above $90,000, up 15% from the Nov. 21 low of $80,000, with the price finding confluence support in three important cost basis metrics: 2024 annual volume weighted cost basis, true market mean, and average US spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) cost basis.
These metrics help identify where investors are most likely to defend their positions during a downturn. The area of support proved important, as it was closely associated with the average acquisition prices of several investor groups.
First, the true market mean represents the average on-chain purchase price of Bitcoins held by active market participants. It focuses on coins that have moved recently, filters out long-dormant supply, and therefore reflects the cost base of investors who are most likely to trade.
During this decline, the true market mean remained near $81,000 and served as a clear support. Notably, Bitcoin first moved above this level in October 2023 and has not traded below it since then, reinforcing its importance as a structural bullish market range.
Second, the US spot ETF cost basis reflects the weighted average price at which Bitcoin has flowed into US listed spot ETFs. It is calculated by Glassnode using daily ETF flows combined with market value.
According to Glassnode, the average cost basis currently sits around $83,844, and Bitcoin once again bounced off this level, just as it did during the April tariff-driven selloff.
The third metric, 2024 Annual Cost Base, tracks the average price at which coins acquired in 2024 were withdrawn from exchanges. CoinDesk Research has shown a pattern that annual group cost bases act as support during bull markets.
In this case, according to CheckOnChain, the cost basis for 2024 was near $83,000, which provided additional confirmation of demand, which again was also seen as support during the April correction.
These metrics highlight the depth of demand for support in the $80,000 area.