Bitcoin’s price fell sharply over the weekend, slipping below $78,000 – its lowest level since April – as profit-booking faced a shortage of liquidity and a lack of new buyers.
Traders told CoinDesk that a rally supported by corporate demand, particularly Strategy (MSTR) Bitcoin purchases, has fallen out of momentum, leaving markets vulnerable to forced sales and derivatives liquidations.
For some market analysts, Saturday’s decline fits into a broader bearish pattern that has been emerging for months. Former NYSE Arca options trader Eric Crown has argued since late October that Bitcoin is in a sideways downward phase, and optimism about a return to new highs – or rotation back from metals to crypto – is false “hopium” for bulls.
“This has been my thought since [the] “BTC has been in a sideways and negative phase since late October… I don’t think 80K is a big low for Bitcoin,” Crown, who now posts updates on the crypto market with over 200,000 subscribers, told CoinDesk, underscoring that the recent price action could be part of a larger corrective regime.
And action in the options market supports this bearish sentiment. Options traders are now increasingly betting that prices will drop below $75,000 and abandoning their bullish bets to reach $100,000. So much so that the dollar value of the number of active Bitcoin put option contracts at the $75,000 level listed on the Deribit platform is now $1.159 billion, which almost matches the so-called notional open interest of $1.168 billion locked in the $100,000 call option.
Read more: This is why Bitcoin traders are now betting billions on a drop below $75,000 and saving if the price rises
bearish signs
Crown points to several technical indicators that have historically foreshadowed deeper corrections.
The monthly MACD – a technical trading indicator – turned down in November, a rare signal that was preceded by extended recessions in previous cycles.
Additionally, the weekly 21 vs. 55 EMA (another technical indicator) has recently reached bearish territory. When this happens, it is usually followed by several months of damage. And the annual chart for 2025 closed as a “shooting star”, a candlestick pattern that often signals medium-term reversals.
Bitcoin $50,000?
Making matters worse for bulls, Bitcoin has diverged from traditional markets since October while equities and other risk assets have declined – a pattern Crown sees as typical of late-cycle risk-off behavior.
“People generally sell more speculative assets first,” he said.
Beyond the technicals, Crown highlighted the speculative waste from the October crash, which wiped out many leveraged altcoin positions and made traders wary of re-entering at higher levels.
Read More: Crypto’s $19 Billion ’10/10′ Nightmare: Why Everyone Is Blaming Binance for the Bitcoin Crash That Won’t End
While not as extreme as some cyclical bears, Crown suggests Bitcoin could fall to even lower levels before stabilizing – potentially in the mid-$50,000 to low $60,000 region.
In fact, he says the range represents an area he personally wants to add to his long-term positions, framing the current market as a potential value-accumulation phase rather than the end of crypto’s broader cycle.