Where does Bitcoin trade from here: Expect patience before the next step.
- Haugen expects Bitcoin to trade sideways between about $75,000 and $100,000 in the first half of the year.
- “There are still a lot of Bitcoins for sale around $100,000,” he said, pointing to options-market conditions.
- A breakout is more likely towards the end of the year as regulatory clarity improves and macro risks are digested.
Why precious metals matter: Gold’s rally strengthens the long-term case for Bitcoin.
- Hogan said the surge in gold reflects global concerns about fiat currencies and asset seizure risks.
- He said silver looks like a momentum trade of late, similar to a speculative altcoin rally.
- Over time, he expects these dynamics to drive demand for Bitcoin as a better form of self-custody and settlement.
Central banks are slowly circling: Interest is growing, but adoption is years away.
- Haugen said Bitwise has already held meetings with central banks in several regions.
- Those institutions are still asking fundamental questions about Bitcoin’s security and risks, not implementation details.
- He expects central banks to eventually own Bitcoin — possibly even more than gold — but said the timeline is likely 10 to 20 years.
$6.5 million bitcoin call: Long-term bets on monetary reality.
- Hogan reiterated his view that Bitcoin could reach around $6.5 million per coin over the next 20 years.
- The main assumption is not an acceleration in adoption, he said, but rather a continuation of global debt growth, money printing and currency devaluation.
- He argued that Bitcoin is a better version of gold and that central banks are just beginning to understand its role.
- Hogan said, “As long as the future doesn’t differ dramatically from the past 15 years, we’ll get there. It’s just a matter of time.”
Zooming out: Volatility compression is important for institutions.
- Haugen said the decline in Bitcoin’s volatility is important for institutional adoption.
- He often tells allocators that Bitcoin is now less volatile than Nvidia, a stock many already own.
- Bitwise expects volatility to continue to decline while Bitcoin remains the fastest growing major financial asset.
Final Take: Short-term bite, long-term conviction.
- Haugan said regulatory clarity in Washington could accelerate the next bullish phase, but is not necessary for crypto’s long-term trajectory.
- Even without clarity, he expects ETFs, stablecoins and tokenization to continue to expand.
- “The fundamentals are really good,” he said. “The stars are aligned for a good 2026.”
Watch the full interview.